Julia'a auction

[debnal]

Any news as to the prices paid for the rifles? Too high, too low, just right?
Al

[mr. no gold]

Short answer: YES!
Dick

[Fullstock longrifle]

The auction was a blood bath, most of the rifles and pistols went for far below the estimates, with a few exceptions. I attribute it to the economy in part, but more so about the buzz surrounding the condition of a good portion of the collection. More than a few if the guns had been heavily restored, and I'm sure that kept people away. At least I hope that's what it was, and not a sign of things to come.
Frank

[Avlrc]

To much stuff @ one time & a government shutdown. A flat line economy.

[Shreckmeister]

A small percentage beat the estimates from what I saw.  The David Cooke rifle with accoutrements.
The Dormeyer, the Jacob Georg.  I had my eye on those 3 and they exceeded, but I didn't pay
attention to the high end.  I saw a couple Kuntz's went lower than expected.  For some reason
the Bedfords took a beating.  I wonder how it went at Conestoga on Saturday.  Particularly interested in the Standing Indian finial rifle and the Jos Mills, the Mills had restoration but it was
very appealing to me.   I certainly think supply and demand
played a part here as well as the other factors.
   
     Looks like I should have gone to DC in the 80s after school like a lot of my friends did.
I coulda had a 3 week paid vacation to go hunting in archery season.  
     "I will not be deterred from my mission to amass a collection of buyers remorse"

[Majorjoel]

I too wonder if selling so many top end rifles all at once may have diluted the soup, so to speak. I consider myself a pretty good fisherman, and always catch the biggest fish with just one line down at a time.  I do hope that folks from our ALR family found what they wanted and brought them home without going into hock for it. I remember a few years ago the Morphy auction selling a boat load of nice Kentucky's all in one shot. I think it was the Homan (sp) collection. I was able to pick up a pretty nice high end piece for what I considered a real bargain. That was my first experience with on line bidding. It was also my LAST experience with UPS delivery! 

[debnal]

Frank,
I think you may be on to something. When an auction description says, "lock, triggerguard, sideplate may have been replaced", that tells me the pistol was basically a stock without furniture that was restored. No wonder it didn't bring big bucks. And, if you read several descriptions like that, you begin to question the whole lot of those type guns. I always found it interesting that a first model Brown Bess that has had the lock sideplate, triggerguard, forestock and several feet of the barrel replaced will bring about 20% (maybe less) of what a completely original gun would bring. I have seen Kentuckies with that much restoration bring up to 80-90% of the value of a complete one. I have found the longrifle collecting fraternity has been willing to accept major restorations that other collectors just would not tolerate. There may be a shift occurring.
You also have to look at what other classes of guns did in this auction. Did the single actions, Winchesters, etc  go for much less than expected?
Couple this with the debt ceiling/monetary problems in Washington plus the inordinate amount of product in this particular auction and you have a formula for lower than expected prices. Unfortunately for Julia, this was a perfect storm.
Al

[JTR]

I watched the first 2 sessions of the auction, and for the most part, like the Kentucky's, the Colts, Winchesters, super high end shotguns and rifles didn't fare any better either.
Just my opinion, I'm thinking it might have just been too large of a collection of nice guns all at one time. Plus, during the first session it was pretty evident that the auctioneer wasn't going to push much for more $$$ once the bidding stalled a bit. Part of that might have been due to the time allotment for each item, and the huge number of lots.
But none the less, that attitude carried over to the second session right away, and guns continued to go for less than expected.
And at least twice, I saw a note pop up on the comments section on the screen, telling internet bidders to 'Bid quickly, or your bid might be missed'.

Funny, but in other areas of spending/collecting, there seems to be plenty of money. High end sports cars are selling at a brisk pace, and many at record prices. Houses, at least out here, are selling at high prices, if you can find one to buy.

I expect there's plenty of happy new owners out there today! Some smiling at the great addition to their collection, and others grinning, and writing out the for sale ad for gunbroker, knowing they can make a good buck on their new purchase.

It'll be interesting to see what happens in the next few auctions!

John 
 

 

[bama]

Where do you go on the site to see the realized prices?
What did the Armstrong pistol go for?

[Eric Kettenburg]

All valid reasons but at the same time let's not ignore the elephant in the room.  Look around at a KRA or CLA show now.  A whole lotta - a LOT - of gray hair.  Blunt but true.  I used to think of guys like myself, Allen Martin, Mark Wheland, Scott Shea etc. as the "young guys."  Well I can't speak for any of them but I'm 41 and while I'm not old, and while I still "feel" young, I don't think I'm quite so young anymore and my kids sure don't think I'm young.  I don't know anyone in their teens or 20s getting into this stuff, either building, shooting or buying/selling.  Frankly I can't think of anyone I personally know in their 30s either.   The reason this stuff - Kentuckys, Winchesters, Colts and all that - has gone for big bucks in the past is due to romanticism and an appreciation of history.  Many of us have these qualities because we grew up on it - but I'm on the tail end of those who grew up appreciating Daniel Boone or Davy Crockett or an appreciation of Rev War era history.  I do not see this in younger people AT ALL - not saying they're all delinquents or 'bad,' just different priorities.

I'm thinking that whatever firearms are glorified in the Grand Theft Auto franchise are going to be the collectible firearms of the future.  Seriously - no value judgement there, just an observation.

edit - oh wait, I know Eric von A is pretty young, probably late 20s?  So I guess I know one young'n.  

edit #2 - maybe I'm just feeling cynical today.  But I think it counts for something - not a "definitive" reason for the sagging sales, but "a" reason.

[Dennis Glazener]

Well I can't speak for any of them but I'm 41

Oh my, tell me that was a misprint Eric, I thought you were still in your early 30's! But come to think of it my wife told me that I turned 70 in June, I thought it was 60
Dennis

[JTR]

Jim, The pistol went for $60K, but with fee's, $72,000.

Here's a link for those that want to see the prices realized. This starts at page 7, but you should be able to see all 14 pages of session 2 but clicking on the page # at the top.

http://www.icollector.com/Extraordinary-Historic-Firearms-Auction_as29166_p7

I have to agree with Eric on the greybeards. And not very many young guys to carry on after the old guys have kicked the bucket. Sad but true, an unrestored Streetsweeper might well be the hot collector item to get excited over in 20 years!

John

[v308]

That's the spirit Mr Dennis! Stay young forever! I plan to stay in my mid-fourties for a while longer, as I see no financial advantage in getting much older. . . lol

[E.vonAschwege]

I got into building flintlocks when I was 18... I'm now 28 and have just taken the first steps towards doing this at least on a part time basis, and fulltime when I have to - made a website, started some marketing, and am sticking to an actual "job" schedule at my workbench.  It's amazing what one can get done when you actually follow a 9-5 schedule at the bench.  

Anyway, I attribute my interest early on to growing up in the Boston area, rich with Revolutionary War history, and watching the old Davy Crockett movies when I was young.  I think an appreciation for that period of history as well as traditional woodworking, combined with my upbringing, piqued my interest in longrifles.  I'm definitely hooked now and plan to study and build these the rest of my life.  

The Julia Auction... what a tease, and what a treat to see the photos of these guns.  I call it a tease because even with lower values there's no chance I can afford any of them right now.  I think Eric Kettenburg is right about the romanticism and appreciation of history that gives these pieces a lot of value.  When I went to school we glanced over the Revolutionary war, and I LIVED in that neck of the woods!  Add to that the current economy, the high number of college grads and the low number of jobs available, and there's really no time for flintlocks.  Many of the graduates from my class who are actually doing something in their field of study are volunteering or are getting paid a small living stipend only.  As a friend of mine said, between student debt and the cost of living, we can hardly afford to move out of our parents' house, let alone start a new (and expensive) hobby.  

At Dixon's this year I had the pleasure of meeting a few young people (20's) who were building some outstanding accoutrements, hawks, and blades... but no other gunmakers.  I think one way to generate more interest is setting up tables or tents at fairs that aren't specifically "gun" related... reaching out into the community as much as we can, giving talks at libraries, setting up at art shows, attending family shoots so kids can get involved, etc.  Give me another 5-10 years and hopefully I can afford to bid on some nice original guns too.  


-Eric

PS - My grey hair is filling in surprisingly quick!

[WElliott]

I have had an interest in antique guns since I was a boy, but it was not until I was in my 30s that I was able to begin to collect a few, and that was at an entry level. It was not until my last child graduated from college that I had sufficient disposable income to indulge my interest in the better antique longrifles.  I see a number of younger folks involved in the CLA and tell myself that those are the antique Kentucky collectors of future years.  Am I fooling myself?  Hopefully not, but maybe so. . . .

Regarding the Julia auction, it seemed to me that it may have been too much for a relatively small group of serious collectors to bite off in one day. I don't know what the total amount bid on longrifles was at yesterday's auction, but I would think it was a heck of a lot of money.   A couple of pieces I was following went above the pre-auction estimates.  Also, I thought some of the estimates were optimistic.  It was exciting to follow, for sure!

[HIB]

Gentlemen,  I have had the opportunity to review and assemble statistical numbers to the Kentucky Rifles listed as sold in the recent Julia Auction on page 8 of Extraordinary-Historical-Fire Arms Auctions as 29166 [www.collectors.com]. I would like to think each of you will form your own opinion as to what these numbers really mean. I'll also add a few personal comments to the final thoughts I have on the subject.  Please keep in mind this analysis only pertains to Long Arms and those found on page 8; numbers 2345-2386 including 2355A and 2370A. Forty four [44] guns in total.

A]  Number of guns sold above High Estimate                   2
B]  Number of guns sold within Estimate                         10
C]  Number of guns sold within 90% of Low Estimate        4
D]  Number of guns sold within 80% of Low Estimate       11
E]  Number of guns sold below 79% of Low Estimate        17
F]  Average price paid of low estimate category [D]  82%
G]  Average price paid of low estimate category [E]  64.7%

% of guns in category [D] to total      25%
% of guns in category [E] to total      39%

Analysis beyond the obvious:  64% of the 44 guns studied sold for less than 79% of there low sales estimate.

Personal comments: A good number of buyers did their homework, studied the opportunities and made excellent decisions. The key word being 'homework'.

Although the economy may have played a small role I doubt it had an overall effect on the guns in this auction. Time and money both run out but you can usually find more money if the product is worth it. The key word here is 'worth'.

It is extremely difficult to estimate what an item will sell for. Most estimates are based on previous history or the last price paid for an item or an average of both or a comparison to the sales price of a similar item and to whom it was sold. The key word here is 'whom'. There are countless stories of accumulators and the old adage of "It's not How many but How good !" applies here in spades.

And finally: 'Gray Beards and Gray Hairs'.  It is true and always has been true thruout collecting history but as I attend many of the KRA/CLA affiliate shows I am always impressed with the one or two individuals who actually demonstrate the beginnings of a true student of our passion. Invariably they stand out quickly because they are the ones asking the questions in addition to buying books and CD's. Mentorship comes to mind and a great number of ALR, KRA, CLA and collectors have taken up the challenge. It is a "Gray Beard / Gray Hair responsibility and it is rewarding to see how many of my associates are doing just that.

So whats the Final Final?  One auction does not make or break the spirit. Nor does it spell the end of fairly priced opportunities. It does, however, lend itself to more homework, more questions at shows, more attendance at shows, networking and research.

A valid research effort will open 99 out of 100 doors. Guarantied!! HIB  

 











        

[Avlrc]

HIB, that's pretty cool. Really makes the results clearer.

[Don Getz]

Come on Henry, you are getting pretty close to some of the Yogi Berra's sayings, or maybe an Abbott & Costello routine.  I
must say that your numbers are interesting, but those prices are still out of range for many young collectors........Don

[Hurricane ( of Virginia)]

Henry: Many of my mentors have always said ( and I have heard the debates), the very fine guns always bring good prices. Also I know a prominant seller who has said to me I would rather have a single $50K gun to sell than 5 -10K guns ( which most may own) to sell?
Could I request a similar analysis  or resort of the all  Kentuckys, perhaps categorizing them by estimated price range ( ie, less than 5k, 5-10K, 10-20K, > 20K) My guess it will show that the lower estimated guns did significantly worse in meeting their estimates.
Hurricane

[louieparker]

Does anyone have any first hand knowledge number 2357 attributed to Jacob Metzger ?  That rifle had  very nice carving and by the description was  in my opinion certainly more than a 10 K gun..  I thought there must be more to the story...    Louie

[VP]

Louie,

I had the same thought as you did. I thought 2357 went low and couldn't understand how2360, which is another attributed Metzger, with more restoration went for $5,000 more.

Van

[Mark Elliott]

I have to agree with Eric K.   I think that there are fewer people getting into building and collecting.    Wayne is probably right that today's younger CLA members will probably become KRA members in 20-30 years, but there will still be fewer of them than there are today.   I know that Jim Chambers told me a few years ago that he told Barbie not to expect to retire from the parts business because he had been seeing an overall downward trend is sales for years.   I hope to get back into collecting at some point; and with prices falling and collections being dispersed,  I might end up with some very nice rifles.    That said,  at nearly 52 and in poor health,  it would be fiscally irresponsible to put a lot of money into guns to hang on the wall, especially if it is a wall in a nursing home or assisted living facility.   Maybe,  I might buy a couple really, really nice originals and keep a couple of my best rifles, but that is probably it.   I think there are a lot of collectors 20-30 years older than me that are thinking the same thing and they is why a lot of guns are coming back on the market.   I don't think the people are coming along that want to have collections of dozens of high end rifles.   That means the prices will continue to soften so that these things are no longer a good investment.   When I had to sell of my collection four years ago,  I made money on every single gun.   I don't think that will happen again.   

[Buck]

I think Henry has a valid point, buy smart and do your homework. If you buy a mid to low range rifle expecting to make a 50%-100% turnaround you're a fool. Margins in this type of economy are 10-15% at the highest end(if your lucky). I think Fred hit it on the head with his quote, 5 outstanding rifles are better than 20+ mediocre to low end rifles. Values always fluctuate, and this was not the time to sell but the time to buy! As far as new interests in the fraternity I have noticed there is always 4-10 new members coming in almost every time a bulletin is published. So Gentlemen, step away from the cliffs edge, turn off the car and open the garage door, it will be all right!
Buck  

[jdm]

My feeling is that if you are collecting long rifles or anything for that matter you should be doing it for the love of the item .The joy you get from learning and the friendships you make along the way.  I'm not collecting to make money. Don't get me wrong I'm not in this to lose my rear end either.  Money should be a concern but play with what you can afford. Simply put if you don't have the money to play the came don't play or play at a level you are comfortable with.  I think that guys who speculate drive the prices to unrealistic height's so at some point the party is over for them.  The majority of rifles on this site that guys want info on are lower end guns under a thousand. Some just a few hundred . Those are entry level pieces with prices younger people can afford and still derive a great deal of enjoyment out of. I have noticed over the years that collection come on the market all at once  They are bought up then disappear for the next twenty or thirty years tell that group dies off.   Just a little rambling.   j IM

[Hurricane ( of Virginia)]

Gentlemen: Please go to this  thread to express your solutions to the above noted problems.

http://americanlongrifles.org/forum/index.php?topic=28310.0

Thanks
Hurricane