This a fascinating discussion. Just a couple of points.
First, a stock splitting from lack of slotted tenons seems a catastrophic failure, indeed. I can well imagine it is a rare occurrence. I'd be more concerned with accuracy being effected. That might be a subtle enough issue that a manufacturer may never hear about. That is, just because no one has sent a rifle back under warranty complaining that the point of impact alters when shooting in the rain or after a series of rainy high humidity days, doesn't really mean that the phenomenon doesn't occur.
Historically, I'm not sure how common slotted tenons are. Certainly, any barrel that employs the staked in staple is "slotted" just by the staple form. But I also know that 18th c. furniture makers often ignored wood movement in their furniture construction, or at least felt it not as significant as modern cabinetmakers do. I've also seen lots of cracked sides on period case goods because of differential wood movement. It may be that in homes lacking central heat and AC the wood movement wasn't severe or perhaps it was just slow enough to be accommodated in the object without failure.
By analogy perhaps the period gun builder could get by with unslotted tenons given how firearms were used and stored. I bet at least some chose to slot them, but not every tradesman chooses "best practice" even today. Yet, it's a small thing that might make a noticeable difference given our modern living environments.
NEWS FLASH: I just checked my photos of a Christian Oerter rifle dated 1774 -- slotted tenons and the wood is relieved on either side of the tenon too. Master Oerter was concerned about wood movement.
Anyone have thoughts on the difference between air dried and kiln dried wood and stability?