So what about this Rock Island auction

[Shreckmeister]

 I hear tell there were some really good rifles that didn't fare too well but I haven't seen the auction results for myself   What's the scoop on that

[Buck]

Not good, but I think it was the wrong venue for Longrifles. Their presence is usually sporadic there, mainly a Colt, Winchester, Henry and WW1 thru 2 arena. There was a couple of hundred in that collection, half good and half garbage. Some of the garbage came from the Sirkin collection.
Buck

[debnal]

Does anyone know what the first model Brown Bess with the soldier diary brought? I think the estimate was in the 50K range.
Al

[Buck]

Haven't heard, only that the $120,000.00 Armstrong went for $40,000.00 + or - and the Neihart in the Low to Mid $30k range. The Earnst went for $13,000.00 and the "Early Armstrong" went for $19,000.00.
Buck

[debnal]

I just heard, (not officially confirmed) that the first model Bess with diary brought $110,000! WOW!
Al

[Shreckmeister]

I think people like a good history along with their firearms

[Buck]

I think it reflects the times. 

Buck
 

[JTR]

Personally, I think the Sirkin circus has put a serious hit on Kentucky rifles. And who knows when, or if, they’ll ever recover.

And it’s not that there’s a shortage of money. Collector bucks are flowing fast and furiously in other collector markets. Antique and vintage cars are at or near all time highs. Top end Colts, Winchesters, and high end Sporting Arms are doing very well, while Kentucky rifles are sucking mud.

This is good news to the new collector! Though not such good news to the older collector that has spent many tens of thousands on their guns, only to find them worth a fraction of that now.

However, the new collector is still going to have to spend some bucks to get a good gun. Though the $120,000 rifle went for ‘only’ $40,000, you still need 40K in the checking account to pay for it. And I have no doubt that some of the well established guys are buying up some of these ‘cheap’ guns as well to offset the cost of the high priced ones.

Just my opinion,
John

[debnal]

JTR
I think you might have hit the nail on the head. When I first got into collecting Kentucky rifles, over thirty-five years ago, a major historian/collector (who everyone here would well know) told me that the only important part of a Kentucky was the butt stock. He didn't care if the lock, barrel, most of the stock had been replaced/restored. And, in fact, for a lot of years he seemed to be right. I saw guns that everyone knew had been heavily restored from basically a butt stock, go for enormous sums. It seems all that changed a few Julia auctions ago. But, I think the untouched guns will still command a premium.
It seems that the Kentucky market is going through a "correction".
Al

[Buck]

John / debnal,
I began to write something to that effect but deleted it. What this could possibly do is broaden the base, hence make it possible for the younger generation to get involved.  Thus driving the prices back up to where they should be. Not the inflated $80,000.00 - $180,000.00 but the $40K to $50K range for a top end rifle. $120,000.00 for an Armstrong or $180,000.00 for a Neihart is ridiculous.
I would agree (John) that the Sirkin circus has caused a lot of pain, but that nonsense was brought on by the dishonesty of a few of the upper / inner circle - upper class collectors. Those few not only hurt some of us but themselves as well. In essence their collections will bring low dollar, or they will leave it to their kids and they will have to suffer, I've noticed that most of their children aren't even interested. With that said this collection at Rock Island is a perfect example of that. As I said before there is over 200 rifles in the collection and a lot of horns to boot. If you guys have lots of money invested in Horns be warned, that roller coaster ride is about to begin shortly.
Buck  

[The Rambling Historian]

I have noticed that a lot of high end pieces from many areas tend to change hands rather quickly and sell through multiple auction houses in the course of a relatively few years as people try to make a few more bucks off an item rather than add it to a collection where it can sit and gather more value over a period of time assuming trends do not change drastically and the item was not purchased in a bubble.

One thing that seems to happen is different auction houses handle descriptions and condition statements differently. Some like Julia's and Rock Island tend to have fairly detailed descriptions. Rock Island tends to have more specific condition statements in their higher end auctions which can help or hurt an individual item. Other auction house, especially those in Europe, tend to just give a headline and a very brief description if any at all and a terse condition statement. Some are more willing to use hyperbole in an attempt to get people excited while others try to stick with the facts. It seems that whenever big name items turn over too many times too quickly prices suffer because in part the excitement fades and in part the people with big money that were bidding move on or have already owned it once. Obviously, it takes at least two people who want to spend a lot of money on an item to make the price go high.

Another suggestion in terms of prices: investors have been worried about the stock market due to changes in China. Perhaps those apprehensions are affecting high dollar investments in antique firearms as well. One thing I know for sure: younger people are less interested in collecting and antiques than the generation before them. This will undoubtedly affect prices long term unless more and more of us are drawn to them. Out of all the firearms owners under 40 that I know, only a very few care about antiques and all but myself are more interested in a new high end AR-15 with all the latest "tacticool" gadgets than an impressive piece of handmade Americana.  

[Shreckmeister]

My wife said I was missing the boat and she urged me to invest in the AR's.  If I had listened to
her, I would be in a pretty good place right now.

[jdm]

It used to be that every twenty five or thirty years several collection would come on the market as the owners passed on or retired .Then you wouldn't see the items again for another twenty years or so sense they were socked away in collections. Prices would gradually go up and there would be a fare return . Now with the baby boomers starting to move on more and more items will become available . Then on top of that there's  the people buying and selling. just to try and make a quick buck . They can artificially drive prices  up and set them for a  fall.  If a guy loves this stuff it might just be a good time to add to or start a collection.  
All this talk of making or losing money kinda puts a damper on it for us guys that do it just be cause we love it.
Well that's my thoughts.   JIM

[Shreckmeister]

This could be a good time to invest in Kentucky rifles or it could be a terrible time to do it. We've already established that the young people have little interest perhaps as they get older and do more looking backwards than looking forwards their history will interest them more we live in a different world than we did 50 years ago we're 50 years further removed from fron tier life.  Mention of the word gone now brings anxiety to a certain segment of the population and that segment is growing and no matter how strongly I believe in the right to bear arms  there are millions who don't     50 years ago a large segment of the population was leaving their farms and going to work in professional fields those people remembered what it was like to hunt and listen to their grandparents talk about life on the  Farm in its early years    Now large segment of the population only gets to see their grandparents on Thanksgiving and Christmas and they don't hear the stories over early America    I collect the rifles of my ancestors and I pay more than anyone else would for them    But when I'm looking at buying other guns I have to be more sensible    I don't have the advantage of 40 years of appreciation in value    It's always fun when you're making money but I've worked too hard to enjoy losing it    I know my perspective varies from a lot of you guys and I'm envious of how it would've been for you to begin your collections years ago and see them appreciate.  I hope I'm not your attaining anyone with this ramble just thinking out loud

[Shreckmeister]

My apologies for the lack of punctuation and spelling in that post I was using voice to text to do it