The cuts are from the lands perhaps the patch material is weakened - or the crown needs some work.
I do not understand what the weather has to do with it, except that in cold (freezing) weather, you need a lube that remains soft, so the patch is soft, not stiff.
Land cuts are what I am seeing.
I shoot the same concoctions of ball and patch ALL year long - very a tear or burn- I also use thicker patches, except for when shooting oversized balls in my .40 - then I use a .019" pocket drill patch. If using bored sized balls, I use either a 10 ounce denim or the remaining piece of .0235" railroad mattress ticking that I have - no tears, no cuts, just accurate shooting.