Anyone Catch "Antique Roadshow" Last Night

[Majorjoel]

Seems they had a special show dealing with the appraised values from the year 2000 compared to what it's worth today. Bill Guthman was going over a very fine early longrifle made and signed by Jacob Dickert. Bill quoted a value of 60 to 70 thousand dollars. The current 2015 value was placed at 30 to 40 thousand.  I'm not really an Antiques Roadshow enthusiast these days. Back in it's beginnings, I did get into it some, but with all of the reality junk around these days, I find it follows the path of entertainment.  If anyone gets a chance to view this episode, check out that very nice rifle!   As far as it losing half of it's appraised value in 15 years?? I can only say that always depends upon an eager buyer with deep pockets.  http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/roadshow/video/index.html

[Majorjoel]

What I am saying is that the current situation for Kentucky rifles is pretty much a "buyers market" these days.  This should get a rise out of some of you "viewers"!

[moleeyes36]

The rifle shown last night and it's dramatic decrease in appraised value, according to the show, raises the question in my mind that either the first appraised value was unrealistically high or the second was unrealistically low.  This situation exists with many items they present on these episodes that compare appraisals from 12 or 15 years ago to a new appraisal that I suspect was done by a different appraiser.  I agree with you, Joel, I think the show has moved more into the entertainment realm and has lost a lot of credibility in doing so. 

I don't have any idea if either of the appraisals on the rifle were accurate; however, I'd admittedly skeptical of any appraisals they do anymore.

Mole Eyes

[Dennis Glazener]

The rifle shown last night and it's dramatic decrease in appraised value, according to the show, raises the question in my mind that either the first appraised value was unrealistically high or the second was unrealistically low.

Possibly but I suspect it has more to do with demand for high dollar antiques dropping off in the last several years. It was a wonderful rifle.
Dennis

[jdm]

The first appraiser was known to be  on the high side of things. In my opinion the first was a little on the high side and the second on the low. As always it comes down to how much money you have and how bad you want it. Sometimes it's just how bad you want it. That is what can get a guy in trouble!!

I have a friend who went to the road show and had a early flag appraised . A year later he sold it  at Julia's auction for over twice what the Road Show appraised it at. 

[Molly]

Just about any and everything "old" has lost value in the past many years and for those with a desire to acquire these are great times.  Problem being that values will continue to decline overall.  I also question the values given on ARS.  Clearly the date the show was taped is relevant to the value today but even with recent shows I frequently see items appraised for much more than they are commonly offered in the market place.  Why are values declining?  Probably like home prices, they were somewhat artificially high in the first place.  But I think the greater factor is that "young people" simply do not favor old stuff.  I lived in a very nice colonial style home purchased in 1984 and had some minor renovation done true to the original character of the property.  It was very well done and full of period furniture along with period paint schemes.  It was sold in 2007.  The first thing the "young" buyer did was rip out all the correct period detail, repaint in bland off white and put a big screen TV over the original fireplace mantel.  They left much of the original fireplace hardware on the curb for trash along with original early 19th century wall sconces.  That buyer sold it in maybe 2009.  The second "young" buyer continue to destroy the home.  All original windows replaced with plastic, hand made spectacular kitchen destroyed for stainless and granite...but back to firearms.

I watch several web site sellers of "fine" antique firearms.  I see tons of them offered for what I consider BIG money...30 to 40 k.  And they stay posted and unsold for years.  The mass mentality in this world today has little interest in these items and my opinion is that values will only continue to decline.  It's almost the same picture for replicas.  There are some nice guns on this site offered for 1 to 2 k which take a long time to sell.  Get on for 5 to 6 k and it seems to never sell.  And now returning to ARS.  It's a TV program.  Watch if you will but don't buy it as the absolute gospel.  Like the petrified #$@* from a privy at Mt Vernon was worth $250,000!

[smart dog]

Hi,
I suspect if two doctors can disagree widely on a diagnosis, something as subjective as the appraised value of an antique could have a lot of variation.

dave

[Majorjoel]

I have always enjoyed, as well as respected the writings, video's, and great knowledge of the late Bill Guthman. Former KRA president and Antique Roadshow appraiser. I feel that his appraisal made back in 2000 was pretty spot on for that Dickert rifle. He almost seemed to be reaching for his wallet while he was giving the quote! 

[E.vonAschwege]

My folks called me to say "look at Antiques Roadshow!!" - I only caught the last bit as he was turning the buttstock over, but WOW, what a fine rifle.  I think in 2000 that very well could have gone for 60g - from what I could see it had a gorgeous patina and finish, with exceptional carving at the higher end of Dickert's quality range.  30-40 might be a bit low for it today if it's as untouched as it looked (I didn't get a glimpse of the lock).  I was just happy to see such a nice rifle show up - probably the best I've seen on ARS!  I saw a couple dozen PA/KY rifles this weekend at the New England Antique Arms Society show - most of them had all sorts of questionable stuff done to them, and the best two were priced at about twice what I would expect them to sell for, even at year 2000 prices.   
-Eric

[Molly]

I feel another word for appraisal is estimate, aka best guess (of an "expert").  They all may go bad when people seek to sell and how they decide to sell.  Auctions, being the most unpredictable.  While I do watch the show I have seen experts get pretty goofy over some things and I think their enthusiasm for the object leads to higher than market value estimates.  Such unique objects which trade very infrequent are all subject to wide swings of price.  I also enjoy some of the auto programs on VEL TV.  The "Chasing Classic Cars" guy very frequently predicts auction prices and the general outcome is that they bring less than he predicts  Owners of objects always assign greater value based on "personal reasons" whatever that is....and what it is has no market value.  In following the KRA auction last year I think a few sold for more than predicted but most fell short of the pre-sale estimate.  Another auction is coming up.  Should be worthy of watching closely.  I would think the people who provide the pre sale estimates are as well informed as anyone, yet they usually seem to be off the mark.  And then put two people on the room with deep interest and resources and WATCH out!!

[louieparker]

My questions would be, Who appraised it the second time and does he know Kentuckies? Did he have the rifle in his hand at the time of the appraisal ?  Also was the rifle as untouched as Bill felt it was ? I have never seen this rifle and know nothing about it. But I have seen two other Dickert rifles of this period and the same general style. One has had restoration and the other is original .. I seriously doubt that twice Bill's figure would buy the one in original condition.  Dickerts  of that period are very hard to find.  LP

[JTR]

I agree with Louie, and if that rifle is as good as it looked, doubt its value has dropped much, if any.

But, in general, Kentucky's have taken a hit, partly due to the recent recession, and partly due the high volume collections auctioned these past couple years. A dealer I talked to says he see's things down about 20 to 30 % in general from 2008-ish.

I think the major dump in value will be when the majority of the current KRA guys kick the bucket, as there just doesn't seem to be many younger guys following in their interests.

John

[PPatch]

I've watched the segment twice and that is a gorgeous rifle, although it is difficult to tell it seems to have all the original patina and the lock and hardware. The relief and incised carving are extremely well done and still quite crisp. I would love to be able to handle and perhaps photograph this gun.

Dicket rifle sequence begins at 24:00, ends at 26.

dave

[mr. no gold]

If this segment was filmed in Sacramento many years ago, it may be that the rifle in question was a heavily restored gun. Not sure that this is the same one or not, but the owner was a high end collector who knew what he had. I saw that show and he came in as a affable older fellow who 'had this old gun' to show the appraiser, (who was known to estimate on the high side). Later a dealer/friend who knew the individuals involved told the story. Nothing wrong with it, but things like this can tend to mislead people.
Same appraiser put a price of 25K on a C. Beck rifle later on, when you could buy a better one than that one for a third less the money.
Dick

[eddillon]

Great rifle.  One of the best Dickerts IMHO.  Wish they would show more long rifles.  They are the most unique artifacts of this country's heritage.

[Majorjoel]

I totally agree with you Ed! As you see from this showing of the Dickert piece, a whole 2 minutes of the show without a very complete look at the rifle. Then you fall asleep while they take 5 or 6 minutes going over a Tiffany VAAZ or a Warhol painting from recent times.   Go figure