Dan- I see your points, as well as the Cast Bullet Shooter guys have a formula for showing at what pressure THAT particular brinel hardness bullet will obturate. Has to do with elasticity of the bullet material. We've mentioned this here at ALR before - I can't find the formula.
In further thinking on the matter, I feel that if the pressures were capable of being bumped up to around 14,000PSI, obturation might take place with a round ball. Since most shooters today are not interested in approaching those pressures with a round ball, yet they are easily exceeded with a slug, even a picket, we will not see obturation in round balls. This is especially evident in the larger bored guns. This 'type' of thinking also shows that obturation may happen in the little calibres a lot easier than in the big ones. It is easy to get a .36 or .40 cal. ball running way over 2,000fps than a 500gr. 14 bore ball. As noted in Lyman's book, pressure and the velocity obtained in rifles with round balls are very closely tied. ie: 1,500fps in a .50 cal. is produced by the same pressure (very close) as needed to push a .54 ball to the same velocity, and a .58 and a .75, etc. While it takes only a weak piddling load of around 75 to 80gr.2F in a 42" barrel to get a .50 up to 1,500fps, it takes 90gr. in a .54 to get the same speed and yet takes 175gr. in the .75 to get that same 1,500fps, yet all produce the same pressure - well below what is needed for obturation to take place, by the formula I referred to.
I'm getting aheadache again - think I'll go shoot some now - oops. too early, meeting Hatchet Jack at the trail to 'obturate' some steel targets with my 14 bore rifle.