Dr. Tim and Scotty, you can serve on my "picker" team any day. JTR, you raise the same issues that I've been talking about, and your comments deserve consideration. Investor collectors??? Let's look at that. First, definition of terms: the difference between "investment" vs. "expenditure" needs to be clarified. An investment is, by definition, an outlay of money whereupon you intend to and finally execute a sale, with the expectation of making a profit. You don't "invest" in a new car or a roll of Charmin. These are expenditures, where you buy with the understanding that the item will depreciate with use or be all used up.
So, back to Kentuckies. Are you dropping money for "investment"...honestly, now... or are you dropping money because you like the item and don't give two hoots about turning a profit? I'm not talking about what you tell your wife; I'm talking about what you say to your inner self. If it is the latter, knock yourself out.
OK, so a few of you still want to invest in them, too? I have suggested before, at the threat of obscene gestures, that the way to do this is to spend your time before you spend your money and do as one of the Lehigh Mafia recently did and buy a $35,000 gun for $3500. Now, he will turn a profit, or someday his estate settlers will. But, if he finds someone to sell that gun to for even a discounted $30,000, chances are that this buyer is not going to turn profit anytime soon! We are now up to what the marketplace will bear, and you are not going to alter that with a smiley face and a good story. Water finds its own level. So, if that last guy bought as investment, it could very well turn out to be a poor one, relative to either more reasonably priced guns in good condition or good commercial paper/stocks/bonds. All investments carry risks, and Kentuckies are not immune. The flies in the ointment for Kentuckies are lack of liquidity and a faltering buying base, as the big guns have priced themselves out of sensible norms and there are few, way too few, young buyers. Show me one man...just one...who is under 40 years old and has recently bought a gun for over $15,000. You should be able to buy a decent gun for that, right? We collectors are not replacing ourselves. Some day soon a bubble may burst, and this time it won't be in the housing market. Auctioneers and dealers in this area would concur that the downturn has already begun.
You need proof? Would someone, just one of you, show me a situation where a guy bought a biggy from a dealer and turned it for a profit (even a teeny one) within 3 years? I don't know of any, and I dabble in the business. So, it's like any other romance...if you love them, spend money on them. Maybe you'll get both immediate satisfaction and long-term comfort; maybe not. Just don't kid yourself on the investment part of it. You can't comment on that until you sell. And don't fall for that "you need to hold it for 10 years" story; it is merely a sales pitch used for the dealer's own convenience. Much can happen in 10 years, especially for those over 50. To the few friends I may have left, I hope you prove me wrong, but probability is one thing I studied in college that I still use daily. Cordially, Wayne