Roger, 3 inches is pretty significant ant 25 yards. Is it possible you bumped one of your sights and changed the alignment? A 1" 40 cal barrel I would not expect to change much from the stock changing with moisture unless you have really uneven bedding in the barrel channel. The light conditions may have made the sight picture different causing you to hold the front sight higher, but that is usually just an inch or so at that range.
Maybe if you give 1 inch to the wind, 1 inch to the lighting conditions, you can explain the the rest by a cold barrel, kept that way by the rain, and a slightly damper load.
All skill is for naught if and Angel p*** in the flash pan (old German saying)