Before you do anything, let me ask this; is the stock quartersawn? If so, you have the gap because, as you suspected, the entire butt swelled along the vertical axis. Come winter, It will shrink again and probably close the gap. The tendency will be for this swell/shrink cycle to go on forever with the stock gradually shrinking more and more each time. This is why the toe is at least cracked on just about every antique longrifle. That is inevitable unless the gun is kept in a well controlled environment all the time, such as in a museum.
The thing is, how much gap do you want to tolerate in the summer in the mean time? If you do nothing, the gap will gradually close up over the years, until the toe breaks. You might split the difference and wait until October to close the gap by peening. That will close the gap pretty tight such that when it opens in the Summer, it will probably be hardly noticeable. Looking at the picture from March, it doesn't look like the fit was as tight as it might have been in the toe. My meaning being, there may be some wiggle room in closing the gap.
Just some thoughts. You have to understand that from the time you put stain on a stock, nothing ever fits the same again. Something is always going to be off somewhere. It is the nature of wood. Butt pieces never fit right again once you take them off after final fitting. Fit is always a matter of degrees.