I will have to try this I am hoping to go tomorrow. I will try cold loads and I will put some loads next to silica gel packs to see if reducing moisture has any effect.
You may not see any change with the silca gel desiccant with the powder.
You sometimes see it written that black powder is hygroscopic. How much so depends largely on the purity of the potassium nitrate used to make it. With a high purity potassium nitrate it will only pick up fractions of a percent in weight as the humidity rises. Then at about 90 to 92% relative humidity the increase will be a bit higher. All of the bp we now use is manufactured with a good high purity potassium nitrate.
Black powder does not show any moisture increase effect until the moisture content of the powder goes above 1%. At about 1.5% moisture content the ease of ignition begins to suffer and the burn rates will be slowed. Most of the brands of black powder we shoot are packaged at the plant with about .5% moisture content.
Even at high humidity the amount of air trapped between the grains of powder in the charge does not contain enough water to seriously effect the combustion of the powder.
This affinity for moisture in the potassium nitrate was once used as a quality control test by C&H in their powder production. A weighed sample of the potassium nitrate to be tested was placed in a humidity chamber on a scale. As the humidity in the cabinet was raised they would record the increase in weight of the sample being tested. They watched for the 92% critical point in RH where the sample would then begin to gain weight rapidly. At 99 to 100% Rh the maximum weight gain allowed would be 1.6%.
Relative humidity can come into play shortly after the gun has been fired. Swiss powder is the only one on the market that produces water as a product of combustion. All of the other brands "burn dry". That is to say water is not a product of combustion.
But when you fire the gun and the spent propelling gases leave the muzzle there is an inrush of air from outside the barrel. If that air is high RH the moisture in the air is quickly transferred to the fouling left in the bore. Depending on the weather if you let the fired gun sit without swabbing you can see a good deal of moisture picked up by the bore fouling.
All of my work suggested that high ambient temperatures are a bigger problem with bore fouling than the relative humidity.
I quit working on that project before I had looked at everything I wanted to look at. The thing about the same can of powder looking like two different powders when shot under different ambient temperatures needed just a bit more work to better define.
I had once read that potassium nitrate is used in propellant grades of black powder to insure uniform ballistics in the gun. The comments stated that the manner in which the potassium nitrate breaks down and releases oxygen was the key in this uniform ballistics. You must heat the potassium nitrate to it's melting point. Then continue to heat it until it reaches its decomposition temperature where it releases oxygen to support additional powder combustion. So what happens here is that the powder becomes sensitive to any heat lost to the surroundings during powder combustion. The burn rate of the powder then can be effected by the surroundings if heat is taken away from the burning powder. This is why open trains of black powder burn only slowly while closed tube burning can see flame spread rates of 2,000 fps. So if a charge of powder, in the bore, is hot that will simply raise the temperature of the gases produced during powder combustion. This is seen in some instances where you have a thin film, or skin, of a glass-like deposit in the bore just in front of where the ball sat on the charge. This skin is potassium carbonate that was heated to its melting point and then cooled. The skin is highly soluble in water but as a film it is slower to dissolve and takes a lot more work with a wet swab than the fine particle deposits would require.