Original question from Eric:
Has anyone with a metallurgical background conducted a study, or is aware of a study, which examines what may be happening with a barrel of such material over time and use? Not speculation; any kind of study which has really scientifically looked at the effect of repetitive pressure and 'typical' shooting use upon the structure of the steel? I would be interested to know this.
My direct answer: Not likely.
Additional thoughts: I am a rocket propulsion engineer. I work with excellent material specialists and stress analysts. The hardware we design, build, and test is some of the most demanding on the planet....very hot.....very high pressure...and, as Dr. Werner Von Braun once said, "In the space business, a reliability of 99.999% means total disaster." Specifically in response to Eric, I am not sure how you would even design a representative experiment that would cover all of the variables (number of shots, rapidity of the cycle, clean bore, lightly rusted bore, overall aging between firing cycles.....) you get the picture. Not an easy (or inexpensive) test to design and do, and the interpretation of results would be open to even more speculative conversation.
That being said, anything mechanical can fail under certain or unknown circumstances, even if being used as designed. If being used beyond design limits (i.e. short started ball, shooting out your ram rod, etc.), all bets are off. For me the question is, "how likely is the failure of a 12L14 barrel under normal circumstances ?"
Some statistics about other things I do routinely that I think are relevant:
I have several steps around my house. From the CDC:
12,000 stair accidents result in death every year in the US and over 1,000,000 injuries ranging from minor to critical.
I am older now.....I go to the doctor a lot..........From the Journal of Patient Safety:
Somewhere north of 250,000 deaths a year are directly attributable to medical mistakes.
I still drive...and in Los Angeles no less !.....From the National Safety Council:
38,300 people were killed and 4.4 million injured on U.S. roads in 2015.
I have done a lot of what I will call "adventurous" things in my life...many years in the US Navy (floating around in salt water in a big iron box filled with explosives, gun powder, missiles, gun projectiles, 300,000 gallons of fuel, and 440 volt electrical systems), scuba diving, mountain climbing, small aircraft flying, handling high explosives, handling rocket propellants, etc., etc.
If a barrel made out of 12L14 frightens you, by all means don't shoot one.
Personally, I will keep shooting all of mine because I put being killed or injured by flying 12L14 fragments from one of my barrels right up there statistically with winning the Lottery or being hit by a meteor. I just can't worry about possibilities that remote...I would never walk down my front steps to get in the car and go to the doctor........