Crazy Prices/Crazy Guns

[Bob McBride]

Is it just me or are we seeing crazy numbers of $1000 guns listed here and elsewhere for what you would expect to pay for a Brooks, Martin, or Kibler gun? I know there are plenty of lesser known builders who can make a $3000+ gun but some of these I’ve seen lately seem to be asking double their value. I guess it’s new people dreaming, because it sure can’t be the market....

There’s always been a bit of 2k listings on gunbroker for an $800 longrifle but it seems I’m seeing it more last few months.

...I guess it could be a sign of the hobby growing.

[Stoner creek]

Bob, I think that’s a lot of wishful thinking and possibly “Throw it out there and see what bites”. I see buyers getting more specific. Fully Historically correct OR pure shooter. There’s a “Sweet Spot” in the Longrifle market. Clearly 95% of the buying market is looking to get the best gun made in the $1200.00-$2500.00 range. Beyond that (in my eyes as an avid collector) the air tends to get a little thin. There are a few guys out there that are willing so shell out $3500.00 but a rare few beyond that. There are a whole other set of variables out there that we can discuss but the sad truth is that most of the serious buyers out there are much like me, retired with a tidy (for now) play money account. My big hope is that there is enough new blood coming into the sport.
Great thoughts!! Great thread!!
Let’s all talk this one..

[D. Taylor Sapergia]

I have had folks ask me for my advise when looking at guns to buy, on sites such as TOW's.  It is my observation that there are a lot of very good buys on TOW's site, ie:  rifles that are well built from great components, for what I consider reasonable money.  I may have my head in the sand, or somewhere less appealing, but it boggles my mind to think that someone has spent good money buying up a set of parts, and then added his time to those and still is asking ridiculously low prices.  I have never nor will ever make a living at this trade, so am not concerned about what the "market will bear".  But I see good value in a lot of those rifles.

[EC121]

I agree with Wayne.    People can ask whatever they want, but it is the selling price that tells the story.  At my age I have way more rifles than I can shoot or hunt with.  So I have restricted myself to selective shopping for used, deals, and spec rifles.  The hunt is often as much fun as the buying.  The clock is ticking so no more ordering and waiting.  Possibly some of the "overpriced" rifles on GB are resellers(not builders) trying to make a buck.  When you see a seller with 400 deals, he isn't a builder.  He got the gun from a walk-in seller, an estate sale, auction, or widow.   

[Mike Brooks]

There is a tremendous glut on the market right now as several collectors are liquidating some very large high end collections. That has brought the price on even very nice custom guns from big name makers way down.  I have seen my friends buy some really nice guns in the past couple years for 1/2 price or less. Like a high end Jud Brennon for $6400. I have found in my own work that anything at or near 4K is a hard sell these days, no matter how well executed or how much decoration is on it. If I could just make only poor boys and keep a good mess of them in stock I could sell them all quick at $2000
 Much of the pricing on $1000 guns going for $3500 is wishful thinking. Many of those $1000 guns aren't even worth the price of parts, but many times somebody will buy them because they don't know what they are looking at and can't tell a good gun from bad.

[prairieofthedog]

I noticed the same thing,Bob.Been waiting for the glut to start,it has.But just like you,seeing a lot  these $3,000 dollar guns in the last few weeks.Either they don't want to sell them or they are looking for gupp'ys.I myself am looking for a $3,000 gun for $1,000 LOL!

[oldtravler61]

  Interesting topic but in my opinion. Their is a big difference in who pays the big dollar.. You have the true collector's who are after a certain maker an their willing to pay for it when the time comes or a certain antique. Sometimes after a long search.
Then their are the one's who want a quality firearm at a reasonable price for their pocket book. That's where Mike is correct at the  $1500 to $2000 price range.
 I have been buying all types of firearms for 50 plus years. Very careful how I shell out the cash for each one.  The market as we all know fluctuates all the time. What was worth $10 k a few years ago might not bring $ 4 k now. It just depends always on how bad the buyer wants it.  Me I've never wanted anything that bad that I'm willing to lose a lot of money on. Jack Duprey calls me frugal...lol.    Oldtravler

[Bob McBride]

  Interesting topic but in my opinion. Their is a big difference in who pays the big dollar.. You have the true collector's who are after a certain maker an their willing to pay for it when the time comes or a certain antique. Sometimes after a long search.
Then their are the one's who want a quality firearm at a reasonable price for their pocket book. That's where Mike is correct at the  $1500 to $2000 price range.
 I have been buying all types of firearms for 50 plus years. Very careful how I shell out the cash for each one.  The market as we all know fluctuates all the time. What was worth $10 k a few years ago might not bring $ 4 k now. It just depends always on how bad the buyer wants it.  Me I've never wanted anything that bad that I'm willing to lose a lot of money on. Jack Duprey calls me frugal...lol.    Oldtravler

2k’s my sweet spot too, though I have paid as much as $3500. No one’s ever accused me of being frugal, but I sure don’t have the britches for a 10k gun...

[Daniel Coats]

Of course it all depends on how good your crystal ball is. My specialty is in a very similar gun market that is subject to the exact same fluctuations. At one point prices started going crazy and many buyers later regretted not going with it. High quality items will always be a worthwhile investment opportunity and the other category items are worth nothing at all.

[flintlock hunter]

I know I'm new to the forum and an unknown, but I've been building these rifle's for 40 plus years. I have made and sold guns in the 3,000 to 4,000 range also. If I added up all my expenses and labor I probably didn't make minimum wage, but that was ok when I was a little younger, it was a labor of love. That's why I no longer make them to sell, only make them now for the grandkids. If anyone wants to spend 80 to 140 hrs. plus parts and sell them for 2,000 are so more power to you. Not me anymore, just my 2 cents worth.                        Barry                                                                                                             

[MuskratMike]

This might be the thoughts of an old goober, but before I overpay for a firearm give some thought to the fact that our sport is run by people who have an average age of 65+/- if we don't find a way to attract new people to our beloved sport those $2500.00-$3000.00 rifles in ten years might be the $1000.00-$1500.00 pieces for sale.
Check out Bob's new video on You-tube Blackpowder T.V. Bob is a person who is going above the call of duty to promote our sport. Watch the videos, "like them" on You-tube, and subscribe. This is a great way to get people jacked up about our longrifles.
Be safe out there, and God bless
"Muskrat" Mike

[Hungry Horse]

 O.K., here’s where I probably will get put in time out. IMO, you couldn’t give one of the economically made longrifles of yesteryear away today. A modern muzzleloader without a swamped barrel, with cut rifleings, hand made or CNC’d lock, quality set triggers, investment cast hardware, and presentation grade wood, is just plain hard to get rid off. And, if it plain without multiple inlays, and relief carving, it still might be hard to peddle. Bottom line is we’re spoiled. We can’t bring ourselves to shoot a gun that isn’t fancy, or well balanced, or has some issues with triggers, or ignition. But, the vast majority of us started out with just such a gun, and probably don’t shoot as well today as we did with the unreliable crowbar with the plain stock. Of course we have all upgraded our arsenal over time, but we’ve become lazier too. Very few of us shoot as often as we did when we started out.

 Hungry Horse

[rich pierce]

No time out for that! No doubt our standards are very high and keep getting higher. Same everywhere. If we got into a new off the line 56 Chevy we’d think it was the worst piece of junk we’d ever driven. You got to roll the windows up and down with a handle for heaven’s sake! It’s got a carburetor!

[Marcruger]

I agree with y'all.  I'd add that in many things "collectable", there seems to be a bell curve in pricing. 

Generally the high prices are paid for items someone wanted when they were growing up and couldn't afford it.  I talked with a guy who restores high end cars like Ferraris and such.  He has a backlog, and he says it is almost all black and gold mid-'70s Trans Ams.  Guys who saw Smokey and the Bandit as kids, now have the money to buy one and have it restored. 

Kids today don't know that movie, and one day the price will drop on those cars.  Look at kids trading in grandpa's beautiful S&W .44 hand ejector target to get a Glock (no kidding, I saw that one). 

I am pretty sure our hobby/business is shrinking in size.  There are lots of nice guns from good makers that are coming out of closets, especially during this COVID 19 scare. 

Wayne nailed it though.  There is a sweet spot on price.  The higher the price, the fewer the buyers.  And at a high price, those buyers know exactly what they want. 

That said, I love that rifle the early Lancaster "Schimmel" Allen Martin listed here.  Gorgeous work, and I cannot believe someone traded it back in.  Bob grabbed that one fast, and saved me heartache.  Really nicely done guns will probably always have a market, though the price always comes down to a buyer and a seller. 

God Bless,   Marc

[smallpatch]

Prices also depend on where you're selling them - geographically.
In AZ where I live, most people believe any muzzleloader should cost what a CVA should cost.
Most of my rifles are in the $2500 to $3000 range. Most are sent to the East Coast.

[LuVerne Schumann]

There is another market that is also similar; Japanese swords.

Genuine Japanese swords used to be sky high. Chinese copies used to be cheap. And hardly anyone built them domestically.

Now, the bottom has fallen out of the genuine old Japanese sword market; Chinese copies have risen in price to be about what a genuine, high quality period piece is, and there are a metric $#@* ton of US makers, all trying to sell $5000 swords.

You used to be able to buy a $100 CVA or what not and everyone thought it was as good as an original.

Now, the cheapest kit is $300, while high quality parts kits are in the $500-600, which is better than the price of a new Traditions.

With the amount of quality parts kits available, plus the incredibly detailed instructions available on the internet, nearly anyone who has the ability to work with their hands can become a "maker".

[smallpatch]

Actually, high quality parts kits go for  over $1000.  Many of them have been turned into $500 guns.
Just like everything in this life, .... you get what you pay for.

[Bob McBride]

There is another market that is also similar; Japanese swords.

Genuine Japanese swords used to be sky high. Chinese copies used to be cheap. And hardly anyone built them domestically.

Now, the bottom has fallen out of the genuine old Japanese sword market; Chinese copies have risen in price to be about what a genuine, high quality period piece is, and there are a metric $#@* ton of US makers, all trying to sell $5000 swords.

You used to be able to buy a $100 CVA or what not and everyone thought it was as good as an original.

Now, the cheapest kit is $300, while high quality parts kits are in the $500-600, which is better than the price of a new Traditions.

With the amount of quality parts kits available, plus the incredibly detailed instructions available on the internet, nearly anyone who has the ability to work with their hands can become a "maker".

Hey Luverne, Smallpatch is right. Check out Jim Chambers Flintlocks and Kibler's Longrifles. For their $1000 kits you will get the same parts a 3.5kUSD Allen Martin, Mike Brooks, and many others will give you. The other 2500 USD is up to you... which you, or I, can't do. All you can hope for your first few is to make it a $1500 gun instead of a $500 one.

But, great point nonetheless....

[LuVerne Schumann]

Hey Luverne, Smallpatch is right. Check out Jim Chambers Flintlocks and Kibler's Longrifles. For their $1000 kits you will get the same parts a 3.5kUSD Allen Martin, Mike Brooks, and many others will give you. The other 2500 USD is up to you... which you, or I, can't do. All you can hope for your first few is to make it a $1500 gun instead of a $500 one.

But, great point nonetheless....

With the caveat that I am just starting out, and doing research on the subject:

My basic assumption is that someone does the research, buys the correct parts, and builds the stock from a plank.

My jefro math puts me at $500-600, and that's a pretty plain rifle.

Compared to this: https://www.midwayusa.com/product/101580776?pid=212245

Kibler and Chambers keep you from doing all the research, and add a bunch of labor doing the tricky stuff, according to everything I read.

I'd love to do a Kibler kit for my next build; God willing and the creek don't rise; as a compare and contrast to the Jack Garner kit I'm starting as soon as that brown truck shows up at my door.

[oldtravler61]

  Interesting but what I see missing in this thread is this. When you pay out say $2-3 k for a custom gun. YOU are PAYING for that persons knowledge an expertise..... Their are several on this site that should be far more recognized than what they are..!    Oldtravler

[Bob Roller]

No time out for that! No doubt our standards are very high and keep getting higher. Same everywhere. If we got into a new off the line 56 Chevy we’d think it was the worst piece of junk we’d ever driven. You got to roll the windows up and down with a handle for heaven’s sake! It’s got a carburetor!

I like the hand cranked widows but I wouldn't have anything with a carburetor again.
going to muzzle loaders,the guns we regarded so highly in past years wouldn't get en
honorable mention today.
Bob Roller

[t.caster]

I have two old vehicles with hand crank windows and 4 barrel carburetors, by choice.
As one of a few builders on here currently with a gun priced over $3k, I feel like some of this is targeted at me. I guess some people don't appreciate the experience and time and effort that goes into creating not only a functional firearm but a piece of artwork that fits into a historical timeframe. I think everybodies price is negotiable, but you shouldn't expect a trained artisan to give away what they know to be fine hand crafted work.
Go buy an assembled kit for under $1500 and hope, I said HOPE, it fits you. If not, find a custom builder who can fit you and give you just what you want and like, and agree to pay his price. Nuff said.

[Jim Kibler]

I hear what you're saying Mike Brooks.  I've sort of been wondering how the high end market is holding out.  I'm much more detached from it these days with the kit business, but I've gotten the feeling it's taken a bit of a hit in recent years.  Any thoughts from others?

Jim

[Mike Brooks]

No time out for that! No doubt our standards are very high and keep getting higher. Same everywhere. If we got into a new off the line 56 Chevy we’d think it was the worst piece of junk we’d ever driven. You got to roll the windows up and down with a handle for heaven’s sake! It’s got a carburetor!

I like the hand cranked widows but I wouldn't have anything with a carburetor again.
going to muzzle loaders,the guns we regarded so highly in past years wouldn't get en
honorable mention today.
Bob Roller

I been looking for a good hand cranked Widow.

[Mike Brooks]

I have two old vehicles with hand crank windows and 4 barrel carburetors, by choice.
As one of a few builders on here currently with a gun priced over $3k, I feel like some of this is targeted at me. I guess some people don't appreciate the experience and time and effort that goes into creating not only a functional firearm but a piece of artwork that fits into a historical timeframe. I think everybodies price is negotiable, but you shouldn't expect a trained artisan to give away what they know to be fine hand crafted work.
Go buy an assembled kit for under $1500 and hope, I said HOPE, it fits you. If not, find a custom builder who can fit you and give you just what you want and like, and agree to pay his price. Nuff said.

My goal would be to make as much per hour as the plumber that comes out to unplug your toilet. Although I get close to 50% if I  work real fast I'll never make that pay grade.