This thread is intended to raise some consideration and respect for the old guns that are still in existence and perhaps help to keep enthusiasts' feet on the ground regarding original specimens. It could as well appear in the antiques thread. I base my comments and propositions on my personal database consisting of 50 active years of gun collecting in the heart of central Pennsylvania.
First and foremost, most early period Kentuckies are not carved, let alone highly embellished with do-dads and exquisite engraving. The earliest guns are normally remarkable for their architecture rather than for the presence of ornate Rococo or "high art" motifs. These are the exception; hence, their high value as objects of art and American material culture. From my experience there are perhaps about 10% of extant specimens that will present carving, either incised or raised or both. Moreover, I have firm reason to believe that a statistically significant percentage of the aforementioned 10% have had the embellishment added in the 20th century.
So, one could argue that the presence of an abundance of fancy rifles is essentially a 20th century phenomenon. The extreme ends of the bell curve of the current trend of "high art" guns are complete with space-age artwork that is purely modern in motif as well as contemporary in manufacture. I have no problem with any of this, as long as it is put into reasonable historical perspective. Other than for a small group of advanced collectors, if you seek to find early flints, plan on studying quite a few plain guns for every fancy one. They, too, have a story to tell, and it is the one so cherished by blackpowder buffs...the story of early, simple folk who carved out a country from rough terrain, using firearms as tools of survival, not amassing eye-popping collections of artifacts.
As any of the judges at Dixons, or elsewhere, will tell you, the first thing one sees in a rifle is the overall architecture and form. If there is any, the class begins to emerge here, and it is both necessary and sufficient for the right form to exist. Then fitting skill and hand work are examined. If the piece fails in these areas, no amount of gingerbread or glitter will redeem it. You can put rouge and expensive perfume on a streetwalker, but...
Next, over the decades, countless people have invited me into their homes to examine their "original flints." I've learned to keep my mouth shut and answer questions rather than offer unsolicited advice. About 95% of those flints were reconversions, some good, some absolutely horrible. I can spot an L&R or Siler from across the room, modified or not. The story is told that Joe Kindig, Jr., rebuffed a man in his shop who claimed to have three original flints at home. Joe reportedly pulled a wad of 100's out of his pocket and said, "You show me 3 original flints and this is yours!"
Also, some people seem to look with disdain upon octagon-to round, buck and ball-type guns. They were around for a long, long time and, based on existing inventory, were relatively popular. Why shouldn't they have been? If you were a man of simple means with one gun, wouldn't it make sense to have a buck 'n ball? Light weight, comfortable to carry, and versatile...shoot big game or birds...all with one gun. Don't be surprised to find out that some very knowledgeable collectors appreciate them. They were working guns steeped in frontier heritage. It has been said before, there is elegance in simple things. Don't overlook the old workhorses just because they don't glitter in the neon lights.
Incidentally, there's a big auction coming up in central PA. Over 200 black powder guns. This presents a good example of a cross section of what is out there. Of these, I counted about 7 honest carved rifles, and some of these are reconversions. The rest are plain or "enhanced." Of the others, lots of the barrels are stretched, only about 5 haven't been reconverted. I actually saw a few that had been bogused up by some clown who took a percussion and made it a flint that it never was originally. Most of this stuff has no future home in the best collections. Make sure you read the detailed descriptions of these items. The evaluator did a decent job of sifting through the stuff and identifying key issues. This will be somewhat of a bellweather regarding what people will pay for wallhangers. All the best, JWH