I've really enjoyed this forum, the expertise and all the things I've learned. One of my dreams starting out was to one day find a rifle from my family heritage. I knew it was a long shot, but I thought it was time to get smart on the rifles made in Mills River, NC so I could begin looking with purpose. I've learned that without a signature, it's very hard to vouch for who you think made a rifle. Even with initials, I've had 2-3 rifles that no one could ID. But I've learned along the way, I've always gotten a lot of help here. You know who you are, and when I get that Gillespie I'll thank you again. I know it's a small collecting world too, and have had a few people ask to remain private.
This all leads me to the question. How many rifles by desirable makers remain after 200 years? I know it's a rhetorical question - we don't even know how many were made in a lifetime. But in my journey I've bought a couple of "known" southern gunsmiths rifles. And a lot more that I "hoped" were identifiable, but weren't. But I'm trying to estimate the remaining numbers by what I have found.
William Zollman - Gunsmith circa 1810-1834 Rockbridge Co. VA. Also a gentleman farmer, he distilled and ran a very large farm. I'm guessing he didn't make rifles all day every day. So I'm guessing he may have made 10 or 20 a year. So 140-280 ever made. In my research, I found 3-4 others, signed. That's about a 3% survival rate of known rifles. Perhaps double or triple that are other Zollmans out there, but not recorded.
Peden (Thomas and son D. T. both) - These two seemed to be Gunsmiths more than farmers. Together they made rifles for a long period, at least up to the Civil War. In my research I've found about 5-6 by both father and son.
Gillespie - These should be the most numerous, since the elder Matthew made rifles, taught 4 sons to make rifles too. Phillip Gillespie seems to have been the most prolific, with several friends and relatives working in his shop. To me, this sounds like he worked full-time making rifles too, not just the occasional one to supplement farming. And it's proposed that others in his shop made rifles and put P.G. on them...to be proven. They were well received and desirable from the days they were new, until today. I'd guess that between all the Gillespies there must have been a few hundred made.
In Dennis' book, "The Gillespie Gunmakers of East Fork NC" I count about 20 signed Gillespie rifles. I think I recall about 4-5 others in other sources not in the book. And a few get discovered every few years. I'd say that's about an 8% survival rate if under 500 were ever made. We don't know. But it gives me an idea of what your chances of finding a particular maker's rifle are.
I'm open to discussion.