The black Pleasant Wilson may make it to the KRA, but not for measurements and dimensions purposes... which brings up another "unmentionable" reason for why the market for Kentuckies has softened.
In my opinion, the growth of fine reproduction rifles, and particularly high-quality copies of fine existing antique rifles, has damaged the value of original Kentuckies. It offers a partially satisfying alternative to collectors who cannot get their hands on guns they really want. The high prices of some modern Kentuckies, when purchased by KRA members and other established collectors, has two dampening effects on original rifle prices:
1. Modern purchases with significant price tags eat up a chunk of the discretionary income money available among collectors that could have gone toward original rifles, and that lost money leaves less to drive up bids on original Kentuckies, and fewer of those "I'll outbid you" battles where value at times is forgotten and egos take over in an auction.
2. When fine copies of originals are made, it takes away a bit of the specialness, or uniqueness, of the original gun. Its once unique, highly desirable details are now shared more widely and no longer on just one special gun. It is my opinion that those very fine copies of many of our finest rifles are partially responsible for a little less interest in the originals that have been copied... and results in a little less enthusiasm when the original comes back up for sale... or other originals similar to it.
I have always loved the work of John Noll above all other fine eastern gunmakers, and "way back when" I owned a fine Noll for a few years... until I realized how many fine Kentucky-made guns I could buy with the same money, so I moved the Noll. I mention this because last year I visited Marvin Kemper here in Indiana, and he had just finished a superb copy of one of the finest John Noll rifles known, and he let me handle and admire it. It was so good, in stock architecture, silver work, engraving, and fit & finish, that I instantly fell in love with it. I had to remind myself that at Marvin's prices, I could pick up several very good Kentucky guns that would have more meaning and historical context to me. The point is, I could easily see an advanced collector who loved Noll's work and wanted to someday add a fine one to his collection, getting hooked on Marvin's superb recreations and being satisfied with one... which in turn takes one more potential buyer off the market when the next real Noll comes up. To make matters worse, Marvin told me that wasn't the first copy of the superb original Noll that he had made.
So, to bring this long-winded epistle to a close, I believe there are more significant factors than just declining collectors and changing interests behind the decline in Kentucky values. A marketplace becoming filled with fine copies [perhaps even better than the originals] has an impact on softened values of original rifles by reducing the available money pool and appeasing some collectors' desires.
Shelby Gallien