Gunbroker

[brooktrout]

OK, nothing so far that is a great discovery here but I would definitely divide the topic into "antiques" and "contemporary" and I completely understand some of the values associated with antiques.  But I do not agree that just because one believes a gun is worth $30k then it is indeed worth 30k.  Now that opinion weakens greatly when the believer shells out his 30k.  And while that may fit his sense of value it does not necessarily fit the larger market's sense of value.  Confusing???  So let me go in a slightly different direction.  The Allen Sandy spoken of in another thread (S X S).  If the one I actually saw was the same one pictured, and it may not have been, what would the guess be of the asking price?  I hold the opinion that the gun was purchased from Sandy and was back in his hands to use as a display of his skills AND to see if he could find a buyer.  That gun was as nice as any I have seen and I know what the asking price is/was.  Anyone care to venture a guess?  OR maybe estimate what it sold for "new"?

Certainly getting up close and personal is better than photo but given the short time I have had this interest I have not had much opportunity to see that many super high quality guns "in person"  but I will make an observation on what I consider "high end contemporaries".  Some I have seen are incredible works of art no question about it.  But they reach a point where the gun is left in the dust and the "ART" predominates.  Is there a point where the value of a gun hits the wall but the value of the art goes on?  I think there is.    Maybe I am looking for to much of a scientific explanation!

[Shreckmeister]

Brooktrout, you clearly know what is going on.  The value of the art IS going on whether it be antique or contemporary.
I have no idea why anyone would pay more than $5 for an Andy Warhol, but apparently others feel differently.  No difference here.  I know a lot of guys who like to gamble, on sports, games, horses etc.  I think contemporary collectors are playing that game.  In a sense, trying to pick the next big winner.

[Bob Roller]

 The definition of "worth" is determined by a willing seller and CERTAINLY by a willing BUYER.
 
  Bob Roller

[brooktrout]

Shreckmeister:  Agree. And actually, I never thought of those who speculate on guns being a part of the picture. I'm sure it does happen and I'm sure it is a very big factor in prices. Appreciate the opportunity to hear from the experts.

Bob:  I also understand that as well.  In a recent discussion of value I invited members to offer an opinion.  Cannot recall who said it but one reply was "whatever you can get or have to pay for it".  Probably the best answer I got because others placed the value from just under $1000 all the way to $8000 and several levels in between.  That's quite a variance! And subsequently an "expert" valued it between $600 and $1000.  I guess it's my past that keeps me from feeling that is an acceptable way to value a gun.  Just yesterday I had an opportunity to purchase a very old map from around 1609.  The seller wanted $2400.  And in doing some internet research I found the same map, equal condition offered for $15,000.  Which makes me feel "value" is more than just what one asks and what one is willing to pay.  I guess I'm stuck in a mind set that says value is an intrinsic quantifiable and object aspect of a gun all be it not an exact "science".  And I will add that MAY NOT be totally true when speaking of specific categories such as high end antiques or high end replicas.

[Dean2]

The definition of "worth" is determined by a willing seller and CERTAINLY by a willing BUYER.
  
  Bob Roller

I agree that is the classic definition of both a free market and market price. At a high enough price obviously there will be lots of willing sellers. We saw this with both the last housing bubble, and the price bubble in "Classic Cars". This also tells us that just because someone is willing to pay 300,000 for a 20,000 car, doesn't now make all cars like it worth 300,000.

Guns are not art in any traditional sense of the word nor are they a sound "investment" in the true sense of that word. The number of very well healed purchasers available to buy guns, particularly muzzle loaders, is far lower than those buying Andy Warhol and the size of the market, which in the case of custom muzzle loaders is also shrinking steadily, is a key determinant of future value.

I really like guns of all kinds, and have done fairly well over the years in having the ones I bought hold their value or appreciate somewhat, but they certainly haven't performed on par with the stock market. I would not be tying up my retirement investment money in high end muzzle loaders hoping they would grow in value like a regular investment will.

[jdm]

My advise would be to collect for the love of the item. Don't spend more than you can afford to lose. If you are comfortable with the price and it is worth it to own the item then by all means get it . Enjoy it . When the time comes when you decide to sell if you make money GREAT! If not, you had years of enjoyment from it.
There are collectors of many different items who have more money than most of us can imagine . If they spend millions for an item. I say good for them and the seller. To buy for speculation , in my opinion is very risky and does a disservice to the items  and the collecting fraternity.

[Bob Roller]

 The Classic Car market in the upper ranges such as Packard Super Eights and V12s as well as the ultra exotic Duesenbergs appears to be a mutual admiration society of 80+ years old millionaires.Most of these cars are over restored to the point of being absurd or down right freaks.This market operates as one continued auction
from all over the country.I knew only one man who really enjoyed his cars and he is now dead.He had 3 Duesenbergs at the time of his passing and drove them hard and fast just as they were intended to be by old
E.L.Cord and Fred Duesenberg.
I don't try to keep up with the gun market in any venue,antique,semi modern or whatever.As I stated earlier,
it's the BUYER that determines value and I have never heard of a $20,000 car selling for $300,000 but then old P.T.Barnum has been proven right time and again. (hey,buddy,I got a bridge for sale cheap)

Bob Roller

[Dennis Glazener]

Brennan's work is not appreciated for his name.  He is a master gunbuilder who executes beautiful rifles.

To better understand what Shreckmeister is saying, take a look at this Brennan rifle and decide if you wish to buy it at the offered price:
http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=414416471
Dennis

[brooktrout]

Now I AM confused!  In my mind being a master and making beautiful rifles CAN be embodied in the name.  Say "Chevy"... mean common car very acceptable to most.  Say "Bentley" and the message conveyed is encompassing of the best of the best.  "Brennan" similarly says "a beautiful rifle".

But it will prove to be interesting to watch that gun sell.  I suppose we might all see it slightly differently....left handed, used, "early" example, etc.  But based on the photos and dismissing the fact that it's a left handed gun, I see nothing in it better than the McCoy rifle on my wall which has been fired 5 times and otherwise perfect AND which was purchased directly from the maker for about $300 less than the example's starting price.  But we do know a few things about the gun offered.  First, the seller is willing to let it sell for $1799.87.  ($1799.87!  really!)  And secondly we know it has been on for 7 days with no bids.   Personally, I don't like it and would not buy it, no offense to Mr Brennan.  But for a master gunsmith who makes beautiful rifles would you not expect it to sell and even maybe for a premium?  I'll go out on a limb.  It won't sell.  OR if it does it will sell for under $2000.  Now, consider I have never seen a Brennan sell nor ever seen one "in person" I may prove to be completely wrong but I have followed sales of replicas on gunbroker for many many months.  A couple just sold, one for just a few hundred dollars.  Two are nice lookers, no name builders and one offered at $1000 did not sell.  Here is the other:  http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.asp?Item=41487185   So, what's the number on the Brennan going to be?  Anyone??

[brooktrout]

No takers!  And no sale.  Have I learned anything from this?  Maybe, maybe not.  But it does tend to support what I have come to conclude about contemporary rifles and this is not 100% correct 100% of the time but...

1.  They generally do not bring more in a subsequent transaction than they do when purchased from the buyer or otherwise "new" (even if unfired or "90%").
2.  Even with a master maker, the gun itself makes the most significant statement.
3.  The artistic merit of a gun seems to be more important than who made it.

[JTR]

No takers!  And no sale.  Have I learned anything from this?  Maybe, maybe not.  But it does tend to support what I have come to conclude about contemporary rifles and this is not 100% correct 100% of the time but...

1.  They generally do not bring more in a subsequent transaction than they do when purchased from the buyer or otherwise "new" (even if unfired or "90%").
2.  Even with a master maker, the gun itself makes the most significant statement.
3.  The artistic merit of a gun seems to be more important than who made it.

Being a lefty certainly didn't help that rifle.
In the long run, all of these contemporary guns, no matter how old, are seen as modern made, and for the life of me, I don't understand why anyone would think they're going to appreciate to any great degree.
Look at the earlier thread regarding a limited production cased Hawken rifle. Even though it sold for more than its new price, it still didn't even keep up with inflation so as a investment, it's a looser.
I can see buying a modern gun because you like it, but don't expect to make money on it, except in the rarest of circumstances.

John

[Dennis Glazener]

Being a lefty certainly didn't help that rifle.

And that Germanic lock on a southern "Po Boy" certainly didn't either!
Dennis

[brooktrout]

Couple of thoughts from me.  First I am VERY new to these guns/rifles so I never picked up on the lock.  Makes one wonder why a master would build such a gun.  But it's a question that might be answered.  It was specified by the client.  It has been changed.  Or maybe it was made when the master was just a grasshopper.  As to contemporary replicas, I have expressed the notion that new ones will not re-sell for what they cost when purchased "new".  I still believe that is mostly true, but no art, not always.  And I certainly agree that they are not "investments" but objects to give one an immediate "kick" from ownership.  However, a high quality rifle purchased from a builders "stock" at the right price might be one that you could recover all of your cost plus a little but over a long time and then the gun would need to remain in pristine condition, maybe even unfired.  I hear some people talk like they are "investment" and that you will never lose your money....I don't buy that!  I have made the purchases I have made and planned the ones I have in mind because I like them.  I like shooting them.  I like looking at them.  I like the people who made them as well as others who admire them and I like to think I just might be creating a little history myself in owning them.  Afterall, two hundred years from now they will be old guns and someone will be sitting around wondering about the maker and the times and what the gun has "seen".  Today's guns will never have the experiences of defending one's self and family from hostiles, or being carried in defense of our homes or nation.  But I still think (and hope) they will be objects of great interest to future generations.

[Roger B]

One of our local shooters here in Arizona has a rifle by Milo Bragg which is a very well made and a great shooter.  The inletting is pretty much faultless.  Unfortunately I understand that Mr. Bragg fairly recently died.  The seller is way over the top on sales pitch and price, however I would be happy to own it for less than his opening bid.
Roger B. 

[Dean2]

I started another thread with pictures of a Hawken style rifle built by Taylor Sapergia, which just also happens to be left handed, because that is what I want to shoot. The market for left handed guns is 80% smaller than the market for right handed guns, so if someone plans on shooting it, or is looking for more HC/PC (I know there were left handed rifles back in the day but they were far less common than they are today) you have a MUCH smaller market to appeal to.

In terms of value, to have Taylor make the same gun I posted you would be looking in the ball park of 8-$10,000 today. I bought the rifle I posted used and I can tell you I didn't pay anywhere near that for it. Taylor is one of the top ranked builders of our day and the quality of his work and artistry is well acknowledged but his guns are still just modern replicas. Maybe 1 or 200 years from now they will have appreciated in value a significant amount, but currently they sell at a big discount to their new price, just like most modern builders and modern centrefire arms.

As I posted earlier, this is not where you want to invest your retirement funds.

[James Rogers]

Left handers and earlier, less than stellar work aside there are some guns that will sell for more than their original sale price even after use depending on the maker and the gun. This has been proven. Still there are much better ways for investments as has been said.

[Shreckmeister]

 Can you compare the potential for appreciation in value of a 2010 Allen Martin made
Herman Rupp rifle in 2050 vs. the appreciation of a equal maker from 1970s (40 years later)
The work being done now looks much more like the originals than what was being
made 40 years ago, at least from the ones I have seen.  We now hold the old makers to a much higher standard and I've not seen
many made in that period that were as good, with the exception of a Wallace Guslar, John Bivins etc
top tier maker, but even they build a better rifle now than they did in the 70s.
    A lot of the 60s and 70s rifles just look like strange cousins of the longrifle to me.